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Wave Prediction by Multiple Regression Model with Coastal Wave Observation Data

Publication year Port and Airport Research Institute Report 032-03-02 1993.09
Author(s) Toshio AONO,Chiaki GOTO,Kazuo SATO
Department
/Divison
Hydraulic Engineering Division Ocean Energy Utilization Laboratory
Executive Summary

 One of the wave forecasting models applied relatively easily to port construction sites is a multiple regression model which uses the observation values of wave, wind velocity, and barometric distribution. However, this model involves the following problems: a) It requires too much man power for obtaining barometric distribution data; and b)It delays the estimation of high wave rising, because the observed wave height acquired at the objective point is used as an explanatory variable. This study, as a rudimentary study to solve the above problems, examined the multiple regression model only using the wave observation values acquired at non-objective points. Obtained results are as follows;
1 From the results of cross correlation analysis for observed wave height, an appearance time difference of high wave is about one day from Kyushu to Hokkaido in Japan sea. In Pacific ocean side, phase difference is 1.5 days except summer.
2 A wave prediciton model to forecast the wave height accurately up to 24hours after using observed wave height only. This model solves the problem of phase diffe
rence between forecasted and observed values by using the two-step multiple regression model.

PDF File /en/pdf/en/vol032-no03-02.pdf