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A Procedure to Develop SPGA Models for Historical Earthquakes with Consideration of Seismic Intensity Data

Publication year Port and Airport Research Institute Technical Note 1290 2014.09
Author(s) Atsushi NOZU, Atsushi WAKAI, Yosuke NAGASAKA
Department
/Divison
Earthquake Disaster Prevention Engineering Field Engineering Seismology Group
Executive Summary

The SPGA model (Nozu, 2012), which is a kind of characterized source model, has been applied to huge subduction earthquakes such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake. The model is suitable for the simulation of strong ground motions from huge subduction earthquakes, especially in the frequency range of engineering importance. In terms of the application of the SPGA model, it can potentially be used for the prediction of strong ground motions for a variety of earthquake scenarios including a recurrence of a historical subduction earthquake. When a recurrence of a historical earthquake is considered, it is desirable to construct an SPGA model which is consistent with the seismic intensity data. Currently, however, we have only a few examples of the SPGA model which is compatible with historical seismic intensity data; it is preferable to provide more examples of such models, which will serve as references for practitioners. Thus, the aim of this study is to develop SPGA models with consideration of seismic intensity data for some of the historical subduction earthquakes. Two historical earthquakes along the Nankai Trough with different size, namely, the 1707 Hoei earthquake (Mw8.7) and the 1946 Nankai earthquake (Mw8.1) were considered. The number and the locations of the SPGAs were determined based on the results of seismic intensity inversion (Kanda et al., 2004) and the empirical formula for the SPGAs (Nozu and Nagao, 2012). In terms of the parameters (e.g., seismic moment and area) of the SPGAs, the initial values were determined based on the empirical relations (Nozu and Nagao, 2012). Then, strong motion simulations (Nozu et al., 2009) were conducted and, if the seismic intensity distribution from the simulation is not consistent with the historical data, the parameters of the SPGAs were corrected manually. As a result of the study, SPGA models were obtained for the two earthquakes. The model for the 1707 Hoei earthquake involves 6 SPGAs from Tokai through Shikoku. The model for the 1946 Nankai earthquake involves 3 SPGAs from Shionomisaki through Shikoku.

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