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Fundamental Study on Real-time Prediction of Typhoon-caused Storm Surges in Nearly Closed Bays

Publication year

Port and Airport Research Institute　Technical Note　1085　2004.09

Author(s)

Hiroyasu KAWAI,Takashi TOMITA

Department
/Divison

Marine Environment and Engineering Department Senior Research Engineer

Executive Summary

Real-time prediction of the storm surge at each port and coast is essential to mitigate coastaldisasters. The storm surge can be computed in a few hours or less with a numerical model based onlong wave approximation using an ordinary personal computer, while the maximum storm surge canbe quickly calculated with a simple empirical equation based on past storm records. In this paper,the storm surges at major points in the east Seto Inner Sea, including Osaka Bay, and Tokyo Bay arepredicted using both methods, and their results are compared with measured values. The resultsshow that the magnitude of the storm surge predicted by the empirical equation is sometimes largerthan the measured value and the time of the peak is sometimes earlier by a few hours. For moreprecise computation of the storm surge, the spatial grid interval for the numerical model should bearound 1.8km for the major points on the coast of Osaka Bay, 0.6km or less for the central SetoInner Sea, and around 0.6km for Tokyo Bay. For these bays, the run of a typhoon should be startedfrom the south from the north latitude of 31 deg for more accurate storm surge prediction.

PDF File

/en/pdf/en/no1085.pdf